A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
